POWER RATIONING
As we know, China's power energy mix is still dominated by thermal power, such as wind power, photovoltaic power and clean power. But the amount is small, after all, the main raw material for thermal power generation coal prices have been implemented market-oriented pricing, is highly affected by the international market prices, coal prices lead to cost rise quickly, frequent power plants once electricity will increase more certain loss, and the power plant factory electricity price is market-oriented, highly regulated, not to say that rose will rise, namely flour prices doubled, Bread has not risen in price, so power plants are reluctant to produce more.
Power Rationing does exist in China, and it is even serious in some regions. The reason is the imbalance between Power supply and demand in China.
On the demand side, the demand for electricity continues to increase. In addition, due to the impact of COVID-19, foreign orders are transferred to China, leading to a rapid increase in industrial electricity consumption, which further leads to a continuous increase in the demand for electricity and further imbalance between supply and demand. If electricity prices were set on a market-based basis like in Europe and the United States, our electricity prices would surely soar now, but our electricity prices cannot rise, and supply cannot keep pace with the surge in demand. It can only be "Power Rationing".
So will "Power Rationing" be a transitional move that ends soon? My personal view is that it will not end soon, and it will probably be the norm for quite some time in the future, because the imbalance between power supply and demand will continue for quite a long time.
As with the sea shortage, building ships and containers takes time to generate new capacity, so the shortage will continue for quite some time. Due to the requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction, the construction of coal-fired power plants in China slows down, and it is impossible to invest heavily in coal-fired power plants in the future. At present, more than 90% of the investment in electricity is invested in non-fossil fuel power generation, which is still relatively small, but the growth rate of electricity demand is still rapid growth: In the first half of 2021, electricity consumption increased by 16.2% year-on-year, further imbalance between supply and demand. Different provinces, of course, because of different industrial structure and energy structure will have differences, but the general trend will not change, at present, our country is carbon reaches the peak, controlling carbon neutral, energy, such as target, the energy structure further toward the green, clean and low carbon development, at the same time also reversed transmission further transformation of economic structure and industrial structure in our country, the need to change the pattern of economic growth, Shut down polluting and energy-intensive production facilities. In this context, the contradiction between power supply and demand will not be solved quickly in the short term.
Post time: Sep-29-2021
